Ukrainian War Stresses Economy

By: Sean Schmid, Chief Operating Officer – Penn Investment Advisors
Weekly Update – March 7, 2022

War in Ukraine weighed on stocks as investors assessed the economic impact of continued hostilities, expanding economic sanctions, and potentially higher inflation due to rising oil prices and new stresses on the global supply chain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.30%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 1.27%. The Nasdaq Composite index slid 2.78% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dropped 3.21%.^1,2,3

Another Volatile Week

The uncertainty introduced from Russia’s invasion continued to whipsaw the financial markets last week. Intensifying hostilities early in the week sent stocks sharply lower as oil prices surged and a flight to safety drove investors to buy bonds.

Stocks rebounded mid-week following the release of positive economic data and Congressional testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who said the Fed is likely to move forward on rate hikes, but would proceed cautiously. Investor enthusiasm was short-lived, however, as stocks resumed their decline on Thursday into Friday despite a strong employment report.

Powell Testifies

Fed Chair Powell told Congress on Wednesday that he would propose a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in mid-March. He conceded that the invasion of Ukraine and the economic sanctions against Russia introduced a level of uncertainty and that the Fed would proceed carefully with monetary tightening.

Powell also testified that he would not have the Fed’s strategy to shrink its balance sheet finalized before the mid-March meeting. Alluding to the urgency of fighting inflation, Powell left the door open to more aggressive rate hikes later in the year.⁴

This Week: Key Economic Data

Wednesday: JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey).

Thursday: Consumer Price Index. Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

^{Source: Econoday, March 4, 2022
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.}

This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings

Tuesday: Guidewire Software, Inc. (GWRE).

Wednesday: Asana, Inc. (ASAN).

Thursday: JD.com, Inc. (JD), Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA), DocuSign (DOCU), Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN).

^{Source: Zacks, March 4, 2022
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.}

Quote of the Week

“Life shrinks or expands according to one’s courage.“

– Anaïs Nin

Tax Tips

What is the Lifetime Learning Credit?

The Lifetime Learning Credit (LLC) is a tax credit for qualified tuition and related expenses. It can help pay for undergraduate or graduate studies, as well as courses to acquire or improve your job skills. The credit is worth up to $2,000 per tax return.

Another good thing about this tax credit is that it’s available for an unlimited number of tax years, unlike the American opportunity tax credit that is only for the first four years at an eligible institution.

To claim the LLC, you must be paying qualified education expenses for a higher education and be enrolled at an eligible educational institution. Check out the IRS guidelines for more details and whether or not you may qualify.

* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

Tip adapted from IRS.gov⁵

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